I’ve been so busy lately, but I wanted to try my feelings on this before it became too late.

Tonight is UFC 145 with the title fight between Light Heavyweight champion titleholder Jon “Bones” Jones and former champ, Rashad Evans. And for MMA fans, the upcoming Strikeforce Heavyweight World Grand Prix fight between Josh Barnett and Daniel Cormier is scheduled for May 19.

Something interesting may happen here.

I’ve been wanting to exercise my sensitivity to feel a shift in the odds, when judging highly sensitive outcomes. Currently, I’ve heard buzz of the fact that Jon Jones (the current belt-holder and the much larger of the two) has 6 to 1 odds of beating former champion Rashad Evans. I also have heard that Barnett has a fair chance of beating Cormier.

I want to come out before the start of the fights tonight by saying that although Jones has a HUGE advantage in size, youth, and quite possibly strength, the CHANCES are GOOD that the WIN will go to RASHAD EVANS. Sometimes the odds favoring someone else falls to the other side. Tonight, I’m just saying, there’s a good chance that that will happen. If it does, it may happen as a DECISION WIN.

Though I’m no gambler, I’m doubling-down my odds-beater for a Cormier win over Josh Barnett in May.

These predictions have nothing to do with my interest in any of them as fighters– I actually have a great respect  for both Jones and Barnett and their unusual styles. There is a side of me that has been reluctant  to post the win for Evans as he has the odds seriously against him for tonight’s bout. But at this last minute, I’ve decided to post my feelings about both fights and see what unfolds.

I simply LOVE witnessing as odds get beat, and a feeling overcame me that this might happen tonight, so really looking forward to check it out, and regardless of what happens, may the best man win!

Meanwhile, here is what I’ve noticed others have predicted would be the outcome for the rest of the UFC 145 bouts:

Torres wins over McDonald by strikes to submission

Bocek wins over Alessio by submission

Hominick wins over Yagin by knockout

Schaub wins over Rothwell by TKO

MacDonald wins over Mils by submission or strikes

Watch out for upsets in at least half of these…

POST 4-22-12: What I find interesting here, is that I had an overall feeling that last night would be a night that “tables would turn.” It just didn’t happen on the “main event” card with Jones and Evans, but the title fight did end up being a DECISION WIN, as I predicted,  although it went to the champion. Nonetheless, with 6 to 1 odds of winning, one wouldn’t even expect it to come from a judges decision.

So this time, my over-arching prediction was more about the potentiality of upsets. It was simply a feeling I got as I thought about my predicting skills, I chastised myself for picking in the past what would be the obvious winners. So I tried to figure out “what” I might feel if the obvious choice was threatened… Well, evidently it’s not easy to pin-point, but I did receive a signal to throw my bones out to the underdogs last night, and although there were still fights that ended up with the expected victories, there DID APPEAR to be strangely more upsets than usual:

As expected Mark Bocek and Rory MacDonald took their wins along with the now elite champion, Jon Jones… but all these men worked for it, and Rory MacDonald was mentioned to have a huge advantage over Che Mils.

On the other hand…

Ben Rothwell technically knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round upsetting a favored Schaub victory.

Unknown Michael McDonald knocked ex-champion Miguel Torres unconscious.

Eddie Yagin, who had a 5 to 1 disadvantage to Mark Hominick, left the elite striker visibly battered, and won by a split decision.

So although I did NOT succeed in my title fight prediction, SOMETHING was in the air that caused a disruption in what would be the expected patterns…

OUTCOME: 3 SUCCESSFUL / 3 UNSUCCESSFUL (50%)

PREDICTION OF TITLE FIGHT ENDING IN A DECISION: SUCCESSFUL

OVER-ARCHING PREDICTION OF “UPSETS”: SUCCESSFUL

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